1、 Prediction of Economic Indicators for Plastic Weaving during the 12th Five Year Plan
In the context of economic globalization, the structure of China's plastic weaving industry is also constantly internationalizing, and the demand for plastic weaving products is also constantly internationalizing. China's plastic woven products will continue to face strong competition from developing countries such as India.
(1) Yield
It is predicted that during the 12th Five Year Plan period, China's plastic weaving products will increase at an annual rate of about 20%. Based on the total production of 8.8 million tons in the entire plastic weaving industry in 2010 at the end of the 11th Five Year Plan period, by the end of 2015, it will reach 21.9 million tons. The overall growth rate may be slightly lower than the annual average increase of 25% during the 11th Five Year Plan period.
(2) Output value
At the end of the 11th Five Year Plan period, the output value of plastic weaving was approximately 105 billion yuan. By the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, the production value of plastic weaving will reach 270 billion yuan (this value is predicted under the condition that the prices of plastic weaving raw materials remain basically constant).
(3) Product variety
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, it is predicted that the proportion of various plastic woven products in the total production will slightly change: container bags account for about 12%, an increase of 3% compared to the previous five years. The main reason for the growth trend is the growing demand for international and domestic container bags. Woven bags account for approximately 35%; It is basically the same as the previous five years. Cement bags account for about 40%, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous five years, mainly due to the decrease in the domestic cement bulk rate. The proportion of tents, building fences, and shading nets is about 4%, which is basically the same as the previous five years. Mesh bags account for about 2%, which is basically the same as the previous five years. 7% of other plastic woven products such as silk ropes, including the development and application of potential new plastic woven products.
(4) Number of enterprises
At the end of the 11th Five Year Plan period, there were 2666 enterprises above designated size in China's plastic weaving industry, with nearly 10000 enterprises in the entire plastic weaving industry. Due to the adjustment of the classification standard for large-scale enterprises by the National Bureau of Statistics from the original annual sales revenue of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan, by the end of the "12th Five Year Plan" period, there may be 2000 plastic weaving enterprises above designated size in China, and nearly 10000 plastic weaving enterprises will remain. Although the production of plastic woven bags has doubled during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the prediction that the number of plastic woven enterprises will remain basically unchanged is based on factors such as the restructuring, integration, and closure of small plastic woven bag factories during the adjustment process of the plastic woven industry structure.
(5) Number of employees
At the end of the 11th Five Year Plan period, there were 327931 employees in plastic weaving enterprises above designated size, with approximately 430000 employees in the entire plastic weaving industry. By the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, there were approximately 500000 employees in the entire plastic weaving industry, with a maximum of 600000 people possible. The annual increase of employees is about 4%, with a maximum annual increase of about 6%. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the annual increase in production was about 20%, and the increase in personnel was reduced. This is due to the increase in labor prices, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the number of plastic weaving workers. However, the slow growth of China's total population, the increasing aging population, and the scarcity of labor resources will inevitably limit the growth of plastic weaving practitioners.
(6) Energy consumption indicators
During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the average energy consumption of plastic weaving products was 1750 degrees per ton. During the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, the energy conservation and consumption reduction of the plastic weaving industry were in full swing, and more than half of the plastic weaving enterprises have carried out energy-saving and consumption reduction transformation, achieving remarkable results. The national average energy consumption index of plastic weaving products has been reduced to around 1300 degrees per ton. It is predicted that by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, the average energy consumption index of plastic woven products in China will decrease to around 1150 degrees per ton, which is still a certain gap from the international advanced level of 1000 degrees per ton.
(7) Sales profit
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the average sales unit price of plastic woven products remained basically on the basis of the 11th Five Year Plan period, with a slight increase of around 5% year by year. The main reasons for the price increase are the increase in personnel wages, electricity costs, transportation costs, and the price of plastic weaving materials. The company's profits remain basically around 3-8%.
(8) Export trade
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the export trade of plastic weaving products may show a decreasing trend year by year. The main reason is that China's economy will maintain high-speed development, labor value will increase, and competition with plastic weaving enterprises such as India will gradually lose its labor advantage.
2、 Prediction of Industry Situation during the 12th Five Year Plan
(1) Industrial pattern
The industrial pattern marks the layout issues of a country's industrial distribution areas and intensity (clusters). The transformation of industrial structure is a major event in an industry.
It is predicted that during the 12th Five Year Plan period, large-scale migration and flow of plastic weaving enterprises will cease, while small-scale migration and flow of plastic weaving enterprises will occur at any time. The migration direction is to develop from rural areas to more impoverished remote mountainous areas. This will not have a significant impact on the pattern of the plastic weaving industry.
More noteworthy is the emergence of self operated plastic weaving enterprises in poverty-stricken and remote areas, as well as plastic weaving enterprises operated by large-scale chemical, petroleum, salt and sugar enterprises.
The plastic weaving industry cluster supported by local governments will have some development, but there will not be a rapid development during the 11th Five Year Plan period.
Whether it is a plastic weaving industry cluster or a newly emerging plastic weaving enterprise, the common characteristic is that it is conducive to the survival of plastic weaving enterprises, with advantageous conditions such as cheap labor, close raw material supply routes, close product sales, and close export trade ports. This is the trend of the changes in the pattern of the plastic weaving industry in the next five years, and it is also an inevitable result of the gradual maturity of China's market economy.
It is predicted that in the next five years, under the more mature conditions of China's market economy in the world economic system, the layout of China's plastic weaving industry in a cluster manner will be more reasonable, adapting to the economic law of "survival of the fittest" market elimination.
(2) Structural adjustment of plastic weaving industry
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, in the context of economic globalization, the structure of China's plastic weaving industry is also constantly internationalizing. The allocation of economic resources and the sale of products will continue to be protected and intervened in by the government in traditional ways, promoting the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure, and will become increasingly difficult to sustain. Plastic knitting enterprises will adjust their own structure, and the survival of the fittest will survive. If they do not adjust, they will be gradually eliminated.
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the structural adjustment of the plastic weaving industry will be turbulent, mainly manifested in the expansion of old plastic weaving industry clusters, the emergence of emerging plastic weaving industry clusters, mergers and acquisitions, strong alliances, collectivization, and scaling. Through technological innovation, we continuously develop new plastic weaving products and expand the application field of plastic weaving. The structure of plastic woven products is adjusted, and the product variety is diversified to meet the requirements of different users. The development of plastic woven products from low-end products to high-end products enhances the added value of plastic woven products. Upgrade and upgrade plastic weaving equipment, eliminate outdated production capacity, improve the quality of plastic weaving products, and reduce energy consumption. Unified planning, cluster development, and centralized industrial parks. Through technological transformation, energy conservation and consumption reduction, strengthened management, and increased income and expenses. Extend the plastic weaving industry chain, expand into related fields, carry out diversified operations, and make the enterprise bigger and stronger.
(3) Energy conservation and consumption reduction
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, plastic weaving enterprises will pay more attention to energy conservation and consumption reduction. This is because the price difference of plastic weaving raw materials in different regions across the country is not significant, labor costs are getting closer, and the regional difference in electricity bills is getting closer. The internal potential of enterprise management is approaching depletion, and the profit points of ordinary plastic weaving products are only limited to scale and energy conservation and consumption reduction. Therefore, in the next five years, plastic weaving enterprises will pay more attention to energy conservation and consumption reduction, and make profits from energy conservation and consumption reduction.
In the next five years, plastic weaving enterprises will choose energy-saving wire drawing machines, circular looms, coating machines, etc. Therefore, plastic weaving machinery enterprises will make every effort to reduce energy consumption when developing, developing, and processing plastic weaving equipment.
The plastic weaving industry is an industry with high energy consumption. The energy consumption of most plastic weaving enterprises' wire drawing units is around 700 degrees per ton, and the energy consumption of circular looms is also around 700 degrees per ton. The average energy consumption of plastic weaving products is 1750 degrees per ton, which is a considerable gap from the internationally advanced wire drawing units with energy consumption of 310-350 degrees per ton and circular looms with energy consumption below 350 degrees per ton.
It is predicted that by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan period, the average energy consumption index of plastic weaving products in China will decrease to around 1150 degrees per ton.
The plastic weaving industry has a long way to go in terms of energy conservation and consumption reduction.
(4) Technological innovation
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, it is predicted that the biggest highlight of plastic weaving technology innovation may be the emergence of polyester (PET) woven bags. According to the current information, the market price of bottle sheet polyester is half lower than that of polypropylene, and its strength, aging resistance, low temperature resistance and other properties are higher than that of polypropylene, which is likely to cause a revolution in the plastic knitting industry.
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, it is difficult to predict which technological innovations will still exist. However, overall, innovations in plastic weaving machinery and plastic weaving modification will emerge one after another, laying a solid foundation for energy conservation, consumption reduction, and expansion of application fields for plastic weaving enterprises.
(5) Industrial Dilemma
There are still some shortcomings and constraints in the healthy development of the plastic weaving industry, which need to be seriously addressed or dealt with during the 12th Five Year Plan period, and may continue to emerge. For example:
The situation of blind investment in repetitive low-end construction is serious, and the contradiction of supply exceeding demand is quite prominent. Due to the excess production capacity of the product, it cannot be released, blind market competition leads to price wars, limited profit margins, lack of technology research and development funds, and serious product homogenization, leading to a vicious low-end cycle. At the same time, it has led to the emergence of shoddy workmanship and counterfeit products, and low-quality cement bags have flooded the market repeatedly.
The structural adjustment of the plastic weaving industry mainly focuses on the extension and expansion of the industry. The plastic weaving industry is very fragile and urgently needs integration and large-scale development, but it is very difficult.
Almost all local plastic weaving industry clusters are products of investment attraction or support from local governments. Local governments can attract investment, drive the development of local plastic weaving industry, and benefit the local economy, which can be understood from a rational perspective; At the same time, it also drives excess production capacity of plastic weaving, which cannot be supported in the overall situation. Some local plastic weaving industry clusters urgently need to improve product quality and grade.
The plastic weaving industry is a labor-intensive industry that is currently facing a shortage of labor. It is expected that it will continue to be severe during the next five-year plan period and will not ease. Plastic weaving enterprises need mechanized and automated equipment to replace manual labor.
3、 Looking forward to the development of plastic weaving during the 13th Five Year Plan period
It is predicted that during the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's plastic weaving products will increase at an annual rate of about 15%, reaching 44 million tons by 2020, based on 21.9 million tons by the end of 2015. The overall growth rate may be slightly lower than the annual average growth rate of 20% during the 12th Five Year Plan period.
During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the pattern of China's plastic weaving industry may become more reasonable, with clusters becoming more concentrated, large-scale enterprises becoming stronger, technological innovation emerging more endlessly, plastic weaving equipment becoming more advanced and energy-saving, and the application field of plastic weaving expanding even more. The average energy consumption index is expected to decrease to around 900 degrees per ton.
Postscript
Looking back at the first ten years of plastic weaving, the plastic weaving industry was in a period of rapid development, which was the fastest growing five years in China's 46 year history of plastic weaving; Looking ahead to the next decade of plastic weaving, the plastic weaving industry will be in a period of stable development and will not be phased out from the Chinese market.